One Election, Two Conversations
The challenge at the heart of the 2026 elections
Electoral victory almost always comes down to which side more effectively balances mobilizing their base and persuading approachable swing voters.
By definition, the base is already bought in on the case and storyline a campaign is putting forward. But the base needs to be energized and activated. By contrast, the swing audience need some convincing and often a somewhat different twist on what’s at stake.
The Gulf Democrats Have to Navigate
Here’s the issue. In 2026, there’s a wider than usual gulf between the most effective base conversation and the most effective swing one. The Democratic/progressive base and working class swing voters don’t just see the choice in front of them through different lenses. They believe the election is – or, at least, should be – focused in quite different directions.
For the base, it’s all about reining in Trump and his out-of-control administration.
But that’s not how working class swing voters see things. They don’t want the election to be about Trump. They want it to be about them -- their rising grocery bills, unaffordable housing, and skyrocketing medical premiums. And they’re sick and tired of being unseen and unheard by politicians waging partisan food fights instead of giving a damn about improving peoples’ lives.
And thus the challenge: Can Democratic and progressive forces knit together two distinct conversations in one election? And can we make sure that the base anti-Trump conversation doesn’t drown out the one swing voters who will decide the most pivotal midterm elections are searching for.
The Base and the No Kings Argument
For the base, winning the 2026 elections is about one thing – resisting Donald Trump’s escalating efforts to undermine democracy and establish an authoritarian regime. Victory in November is about putting the brakes on Trump and turning him into a weakened lame duck for his last two years in office.
In many ways, the No Kings movement and the massive No Kings events are the ultimate expression of this perspective. Millions of people have taken to the streets twice to declare their deep opposition to Trump’s cruelty, his corruption, his power grabs and his utter disregard for the Constitution and the rule of law.
There is little doubt that the third No Kings Day in March will be another stunning display of active opposition to Trump’s authoritarian agenda.
The No Kings movement, anti-ICE activism, and other acts of resistance are having a powerful impact by:
Lifting the spirits of anti-Trump forces despairing at the breadth and depth of the Trump assault.
Demonstrating that resistance to Trump extends far beyond progressive bastions on the East and West coasts.
Prodding slow-moving and overly timid Democratic leaders to show at least a little more backbone.
But No Kings events are entirely about mobilization as opposed to persuasion. They are squarely aimed at committed anti-Trump audiences. Those people showing up in droves all across the country see the 2026 election as a referendum on Trump’s out-of-control presidency, a chance to somehow rein him in.
But treating the 2026 elections as an all-in Trump referendum
won’t produce the kinds of victories we need this year. And it
certainly won’t put Democrats on a path to victory when a much |
wider electorate goes to the polls in 2028.
It’s not my intent to fault the historic No Kings movement and the broader anti-Trump opposition for failing to do something they never set out to do. The point I’m making is that, as vital and essential as the No Kings movement conversation is, it isn’t the one working class swing voters are yearning for.
This year, the messaging challenge isn’t just to tweak the narrative that works for
the base so that it also connects with swing voters. It’s to have two different conversations in the same election.
A Conversation That Connects With Swing Voters
Let’s start by profiling the swing voters who will play a decisive role in many
of the closest 2026 House and Senate contests. In 2024, there were two key segments to Trump’s winning coalition.
I like to think of it as those who voted for Trump because of what he says and does and those who voted for him despite what he says and does. That second group turned to Trump largely out of frustration about inflation and economic worries.
They are approachable in 2026. But it requires a very different conversation – one focused not on Trump’s latest outrage but on their own economic challenges and their belief that they have long been unseen and unheard by the political establishment.
If we want them to show up at the polls and vote Democratic, we have to persuade them that our mission isn’t just to settle a score with Trump but to zero in on concrete plans to improve their lives.
Think about it like this. Imagine these vitally important swing voters asking our candidates this question: “Are you out to win a political battle with Donald Trump or are you focused on the daily struggles my family is wrestling with?”
The outcome of the 2026 midterms and the prospect of setting Democrats on a path to victory in 2028 depend on how persuasively we can answer that question.